Welp it's time again to make predictions for 2020. In the solar industry we're excited about the forward momentum in every aspect of our business, so lets hop right in and look at the top 5 predictions we will see this upcoming year.
1. Residential Solar Prices Continue To Decrease
Solar PV electricity costs have fallen 73% since 2010, according to a new cost analysis from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Furthermore, solar PV costs are expected to be cut in half by 2020. The best solar PV projects could be delivering electricity for an equivalent of three cents per kWh or less within the next two years.
Global weighted average costs over the last 12 months for solar PV now stand at six cents and 10 cents per kWh respectively, with recent auction results suggesting future projects will significantly undercut these averages.The current cost spectrum for fossil fuel power generation ranges from five to 17 cents per kWh.
“This new dynamic signals a significant shift in the energy paradigm,” said Adnan Z. Amin, IRENA director-general. “These cost declines across technologies are unprecedented and representative of the degree to which renewable energy is disrupting the global energy system.”
The solar Investment Tax Credit is one of the most important federal policies to support the expansion of solar energy in the United States. The ITC is a 30% tax credit for the solar system installed on residential, commercial, and large-scale utility solar farms which enables you to deduct 30% of the cost of solar installation from your federal tax liability and there is NO cap for that!
The most important benefit of the solar tax credit is to provide financial support for customers and make the process of shifting toward a solar power system more affordable, as well as providing market assurance for companies to develop long-term investments that drive competition and technological innovation, which result in lower energy costs for consumers.
2. Solar Policy Battles Continue In Washington
There has been a much debate on the expansion of solar tax credit. Congress passed a bill in 2015 and the tax credit is now available to homeowners and commercial sectors with different rates through 2021. The main prediction is that the fight rages on for this Tax credit incentive to stay at 30%.
However, currently the full 30% tax credit WILL NOT be available after 2019 and will drop by 4% as of January 2020. The tax credit will thus begin a slow ramp-down through 2022 as follows:
2019: The tax credit remains at 30% of the cost of the system. This means that if you get your system before the end of 2019, you will have the opportunity to get 30% tax credit for your solar panel system.
2020: Owners of a new residential and commercial solar power system can only deduct 26% of the cost of the system from their taxes.
2021: Owners of a new residential and commercial solar system will be able to deduct 22% of the cost of the solar power system from their taxes.
2022 onwards: Only owners of a new Commercial solar PV system can deduct 10% of the cost of the system from their taxes. There is No Federal Tax Credit for Residential solar energy systems.
In summary, the solar Investment Tax Credit is applied to your solar power system cost and the amount you receive varies based on the solar system size you choose. Be sure to follow the hashtags #DefendTheITC & #StopSolarTariffs to keep updated on the battles happening in Washington.
Clean Energy Policy Faces Steep Climb Ahead of 2020 Election
These are busy days for the writers of clean energy bills in Washington, D.C., with lawmakers dishing up plans for everything from a national renewables portfolio standard to a standalone tax credit for energy storage.
The solar industry, meanwhile, is lobbying for another extension to the federal Investment Tax Credit, sending a letter to lawmakers on Wednesday signed by nearly 1,000 U.S. solar companies in support.
But amid this policy push, some experts have a cold splash of reality for renewables companies: Major help at the federal level seems unlikely until after the November 2020 presidential election, including for the solar ITC. The landscape beyond 2020 is anyone’s guess.
That leaves the renewables industry playing a longer game than it would like as the sand drains from the tax-credit hourglass, ahead of an extraordinarily unpredictable election.
3. Solar Tech Innovations Are Looking Sunny
Recently, there are leaps in innovations being made with solar energy technology that might be game changers to both the solar industry and how we will differently embrace solar energy. For instance, the most common type of solar cell today is that of crystalline silicon (c-Si) which has dominated the solar industry for decades. While there are other materials that can be layered in thin films like copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) and cadmium telluride (CdTe), these thinner films have barely dented the market simply because they are more expensive and difficult to produce. Mono- and polycrystalline cells have persisted largely because of their cost and ease of manufacturing, plus there have been innovations such as thin-film photovoltaics where microscopically think coatings of semiconductor material onto an underlying material will result in better incorporations of photovoltaics into buildings. While solar panels can be great, they are bulky, a safety hazard should they detach and they come with their own carbon footprint.
In recent years, however, the innovation of perovskite solar cells may very well revolutionize solar energy. Perovskites, third-generation solar cells, are composed of a calcium titanium oxide mineral which is composed of calcium titanate (CaTiO3) and they have started to make their debut outside the laboratory over the past year. Their high absorption coefficient enables ultra-thin films of around 500 nm (one nanometer equals one billionth of a meter, or 0.000000001 m) to absorb the complete visible solar spectrum. This new technology will leave traditional solar panels in the dust. What this means for the future of architecture is that every build could feasibly be covered in these cells without disrupting the esthetic form, colors, textures and styles. In fact, these solar cells are already being integrated into clothing where Nottingham Trent University has developed a way to embed micro-solar cells into yarn which can be woven into textiles. What is certain is that solar panels are being reinvented and recast through thinner materials where the tensile strength can meet architectural and engineering standards while also improving the energy output.
Making inroads in solar cell technology, China holds the world's largest market for photovoltaics and solar thermal energy and since 2013 has been the leading installer of solar photovoltaics (PV) on buildings. And just this week Huawei announced its entry into Israel’s solar energy market this week. In order for China to meet its housing needs, however, the construction of most modern living quarters comes in the form of tall residential towers whose roofs would hold very few solar panels as compared to their vast exterior walls. This is one of the challenges that Chinese cities which attempt to take part in the ecological betterment are facing today. Still, China produces roughly 60% of the worlds solar panels, two-thirds of its energy still come from coal.
4. HOA's Continually Warm Up To Solar
In homeowner associations, any improvement requiring the installation of solar panels on a residential rooftop typically invokes an association’s governing documents and the often-accompanying architectural guidelines, approval and potential enforcement issues that come with the territory.
One of the scenarios that inevitably plays out in residential solar installations all over the US involves the location and configuration of solar panels on a rooftop and the resulting aesthetic effect to the surrounding neighborhood. In these situations, a homeowner and their installer may insist that solar panels be oriented on a certain side of the roof for maximum sun exposure, while the HOA’s architectural review committee demands that placement on the other side of the house is better for aesthetics. Or, the conflict might involve how many panels are necessary and how and where the system is configured. To intensify the situation, the installer provides a detailed technical analysis report to the association, claiming that the “efficiency” of the solar panel system on the rooftop will suffer considerably if the solar panels are located/configured where the HOA wants.
Does an HOA have the right to restrict where and how solar panels are installed and configured on a residential rooftop? The answer has something to do with “efficiency” and might even require the intervention of a state agency.
Changes made to Nevada's law in 2009 forbid HOAs from enforcing any regulation that prohibits or unreasonably restricts a residential property owner from using a system to obtain solar energy, including solar paneling. Current laws specifically state that any restriction that decreases the efficiency performance of a system by more than 10 percent of the amount originally anticipated is considered to be “unreasonable.”
The Nevada Governor’s Office of Energy is charged by state law with the responsibility to determine whether an HOA’s regulation of a residential solar energy system is overly restrictive for efficiency purposes. Once a request is made from either an HOA or a homeowner, the Office of Energy reviews information provided from both sides of the conflict in order to provide an official determination to the parties within 30 days. This includes any technical analysis and data regarding the orientation and configuration of the proposed panels provided by the solar power installer, which is independently analyzed and confirmed by the Office of Energy. A decrease in the efficiency or performance of a proposed system by more than 10 percent of the amount originally specified for the system is used as a standard to determine if an association’s restriction is unreasonable or not. The proposed solar energy system is then assessed against the HOA’s attempted restriction and the restriction’s underlying purpose. A final decision is memorialized in a letter sent to the involved parties by the Office of Energy’s Director.
Whether you'r HOA consists of detached dwellings, condos or townhouses, you can utilize solar to benefit your members, reduce energy costs and preserve the environment.
HOAs and their members that haven’t considered solar in the past are now attracted to the federal tax deduction – 26 percent in 2020, and 22 percent in 2021. As the fifth sunniest state, Utah is benefitting from the use of solar. The current installation boom is expected to continue through 2040, according to the Salt Lake Tribune. In addition, new technologies are becoming available that make solar easier, more affordable and less bulky.
Regardless of your interest in solar, we recommend that your HOA revisit its architectural guidelines related to solar panels and other equipment. Pro-solar Utah legislation enacted in 2017 makes the subject relevant to many HOAs. The legislation, called Solar Access Amendments, prevents Utah HOAs from prohibiting the installation of a solar system on detached dwellings, but HOAs may still enact architectural guidelines that limit where solar panels may be installed, as long as doing so does not impair a solar system’s potential energy production more than 5 percent. The 5 percent clause in the law is subject to interpretation and requires the evaluation of a solar installation specialist.
Most solar system installers will provide a free assessment to determine if solar makes sense for a customer. Going solar requires an upfront investment, and for the system to be economical, it should pay for itself, and then some, over time through reduced electric bills. Factors that influence the return on investment include:
Amount of southern exposure to the roof
The number of sunny days in your community annually
Whether trees or other objects block the sun from hitting the roof for part or all of a day
The age of the roof – an older roof may need to be replaced at the time of installation, which would increase costs
Unfortunately, going solar usually involves a lot of red tape for compliance with federal, state, and municipal requirements, although efforts are being made in the federal government to better streamline the process because of its benefits to an entire community. Envirosolar's installers help navigate our customers through some of the paperwork, but an HOA Board can also assist by being aware of existing laws and providing clear architectural guidelines for its members.
5. IoT And Smart Home Automation Continue To Change The Way We Live
Energy Savings -Smart Switches reduce your bills by automatically turning off lights when you’re not home.
Security - When you plug a lamp into a smart switch, it becomes a smart light with home security benefits
Convenience - Home automation via your smart phone is easy. Smart Switches are great for automating the lights so they turn on when you wake up or when you get home from work.
Added Safety - While you are away on holiday, your lighting system could periodically switch on/off lighting in your home to simulate that someone is home.
Home automation is here to stay. When you’re not home, nagging little doubts can start to crowd your mind. Did I turn the coffee maker off? Did I set the security alarm? Are the kids doing their homework?
With a mix of solar & smart home, you can quiet all of these worries with a quick glance at your smartphone or tablet. You can connect the devices and appliances in your home so they can communicate with each other and you.
Any device in your home that uses electricity can be put on your home network and at your command. Whether you give that command by voice, remote control, tablet or smartphone, the home reacts. Most applications relate to lighting, home security, energy management, and thermostat regulation. Now that is a truly connected home.
Last week we drilled down on the current state of play with 5G. This new generation of wireless comms will be a game-changer in far more ways than previous iterations.
How will 5G impact the smart home, though? There’s a disconnect with the Internet of Things in its current incarnation. Most of these things have no connection to the Internet at all. The IoT is fragmented due to weak WiFi, a lack of uniform protocols and the restrictions of LTE. A uniform, energy-saving standard would improve user experience substantially so how might 5G plug that gap?
Previous wireless standards, from WiFi and Bluetooth LE to Zigbee and Z-Wave all come with limitations, and there’s also that lack of uniformity muddling things further. Interoperability could be vastly improved, as anyone who’s struggled with matching up different devices knows only too well.
5G, on the other hand, could allow devices to communicate with each other directly while addressing issues of range and latency that different blight standards. Incompatibility would also be a thing of the past.
So, it remains to be seen if this high-bandwidth, low-latency network will deliver a more seamless smart home experience. We feel it has great potential, but there’s still the severe issue of power consumption to negotiate.
We predict that in the short term, 5G will start by improving the general performance of smart devices but a real paradigm shift is not likely to occur in the next year or two. Let’s face it. We still need to get 5G fully up and running on our phones first!
We took a look into LG’s CLOi range, getting broader and deeper all the time.These robots are now deployed in South Korea’s Incheon airport while many use cases are developing for the hospitality industry. What about robots solutions in the smart home, though?
While they might not look like the robotic helpers touted in sci-fi movies. Robotic vacuums, and lawnmowers and already thoroughly entrenched in our homes.
Although 2019 is not going to be the year lifelike robots penetrate our homes en masse, there’s likely to be an essential move away from single-usage products toward more multi-tasking solutions.
The continuing evolution of digital assistants has laid firm foundations for the human interface capabilities required to ensure robots are intuitive, useful and user-friendly. AI and machine learning are also soaring ever-onward.
From mobile robotic solutions like Temi, a tablet on wheels, to the innovations LG are bringing about with CLOi. The time is ripe for robots to start helping you more. From family-friendly and fun social solutions through home monitoring these devices and robots will help with smart home integration. Expect things to step up a gear on the robot front over the coming year.
In Conclusion
Solar energy has an important role to play in our future. These changes help to produce more jobs, it’s economically efficient, and it plays a major role in they way we protect and use the earth’s resources. The solar power industry is expected to grow; eventually becoming “the world’s largest single source of energy” in the 2020s. Moore hopes for a future where the overall cost of solar systems continue to decrease as there are new developments in solar innovation. She said: ” A few cities in Florida have followed California and made solar implementation in the construction of new homes mandatory. I truly hope all cities in the State of Florida will make solar mandatory for new homes as well.”
A reduction in the cost of these technologies will also benefit the solar industry where it is expected that there will be a global increase in the installation of solar technologies. Also, the percentage of homes in the United States that have solar technologies should also increase to 2.5% by the mid 2020s. If Florida’s local governments continue to embrace renewable energy, they have the potential to become a real leader and example for other states to follow. In the future, we might even see solar powered mobile networks, roads, and solar powered clothing.